Grit, Guts, & Glorious Winners

Brett Favre wants to play football next year. Anyone catching a glimpse of ESPN over the last month can confirm this. The media, salivating and frenzied at the scent of any sign of a dramatic storyline, has kept the public clued in on any miniscule detail related to Favre’s desire.  I grow tired of this deluge, this story, this figure.

I grew up in Wisconsin, just outside of Green Bay. Football assailed me from every direction. So, I am a fan of the Green Bay Packers. Further, as I am from a particular age group, I grew up cheering for a team featuring Brett Favre as the field general. He stood as a god to a young boy watching on the television or at training camp. He’s seemed reliable and steady and true. Favre stands as a bookend of my experiences as an NFL fan.

The situation surrounding Favre and the Packers this month bugs me as a fan of this pedigree. Others have analyzed and detailed the general narrative far more eloquently than I can. I will say that, after following Favre at the head of my chosen team for so long, I expected a far more level headed approach to retirement on his part. However, I’m interested in the reaction of Packer fans to this hullabaloo.

The fans have, well, seemingly split. Some, like me, wish Favre would have stayed retired. We wish that his actions had not drawn the whole of the NFL world into a squabble over whether or not Ted Thompson and the rest of the Packer organization act as spreaders of evil, communism, and lies through their – decidedly forward looking – moves. Another faction thinks Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy exist as perfect personifications of Satan.

This faction feels that the Packer front office has shat upon team history. In their eyes, the organization abused the ever so playful – he really loves it out there and is having so much fun all the time in those Wrangler jeans – football hurler standing as the idol of modern Packer fandom. Vileness incarnate is afoot, and these individuals have decided to fight for their glorious winner, Saint Favre. They won’t rest until Favre holds his rightful position as starting quarterback for the Packers; sensible use of the exclamation point be damned.

I can see where they’re coming from. I mean, I lived in the suburbs Green Bay for most of my youth! I also have a huge man-crush on Favre.  If I had to choose between making out with Brett Favre and not making out with Brett Favre, I would make out with Brett Favre.  Just like any other real Packer fan.

That doesn’t stop me from thinking the people spouting vitriol towards the Packers’ front office and staff are short-sighted, gibbering madmen here. Why do I not writhe in fury at the thought of someone else taking the spot Favre held for a really long time?

Let us first consider the situation with Aaron Rodgers. Hold a moment, let’s not; other people have already considered the dread potential implied in Favre’s actions between the Packers organization and the apparent starting quarterback. I’ll just state that the people that scream about the stupidity of the Packer organization’s actions in relation to Favre clearly care not whether or not the team has a season after 2008.
“Favre was and is at the top of his game! He has all the intangible qualities needed in a player!” they cry. “Forget that Rodgers!! We’ll go to the Super Bowl next year with Favre!!!”

“Well,” I say, resting my face on the palm of my hand. “He had a good year in 2007. But what of the constant passage of time Favre surely experiences?” No response. “Think of regression toward the mean! He’s one year older now, 38 is not young!”

It means nothing to the die-hard legion of the Favre.

Now, I know that Favre put up some of his best standard numbers last season. He broke a bunch of records and it was a cool time to be a fan of the Packers and Favre and the NFL. However, I don’t think Favre will excrete magic and wins next season just because he performed beyond expectations for him last season. Intangibles are intangible for a reason.

Furthermore, one might consider some outside factors that could have contributed to Favre’s success last season. What if the teams he went up during the season had somewhat “meh” defensive ability against the pass? That might have helped his numbers a bit, eh?

When looking at the game by game statistics for Favre’s 2007 season, one notes that Favre posted 10 games out of 16 with a passer rating above the 83.5 average across quarterbacks in the league last year. Favre played against 8 different teams in these 10 games (NYG, SD, 2xMIN, DEN, KAN, CAR, 2xDET, OAK). According to the DVOA system, 4 (MIN, CAR, DEN, DET) had pass defenses that ranked in the lower half of the league. This suggests that, for more than half of Favre’s above average games last season, he was throwing against teams that, one might conjecture, possessed defenses that were not consistently on the plane of existence that Favre existed on. It was as if defenders were supposed to be cheesemakers, but they always forgot the ideal temperature for the growth of lactic acid bacteria when Favre passed.

As such, Favre might have been helped by throwing against defenses that weren’t really performing that well against the pass. This doesn’t explain his whole season. However, it does suggest that there might be more to performance last year (luck, context) than a sudden and everlasting boost in ability and skill. It also informs against the idea that Favre will automatically win and take the Packers straight to the Super Bowl no questions asked. FootballOutsiders.com’s ranking of Green Bay’s offensive line as #1 in pass protection last year also hints against the whole “he now possesses mystic win powers coming out of his ears” argument for Favre as an unquestionable starter.

I wish nostalgic Packer fans wouldn’t scream, “Down with Rodgers – Favre 4 ever!” They ought not heap such scorn on Rodgers. Instead, I think they ought to try considering the issue while keeping the future of the Packers as a team in mind and considering the laws of physics that even Favre is subject to.

And, hey, even a monkey could have gotten us to the playoffs with that kind of pass protection.